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The Truth About the Local Housing Market
There are three metrics that really tell you what’s happening in the local housing market, but nobody else is talking about them. I don’t know why. But they aren’t.
There are so many people who want to buy or sell a home and they’re feeling stuck. There is a lot of misinformation and irrelevant information that makes it even more confusing. I’m going to tell you what you actually need to know about our local housing market.
First of all, it’s good to know that there are housing markets that are booming hot in other parts of the country. Markets like Hartford, Connecticut, Buffalo, New York, and San Jose, California are still consistently getting over list price for most listings. Raleigh is not that. Our market has always been a lot more nuanced than the most booming markets. Its hallmark has been avoiding the booms and the busts.
Having said that, it IS slower in the Triangle market this year compared to last year. It’s always slow in late summer, but this year it’s a *slightly* slower than normal. So many agents and sellers believe this year is exceptionally different and the market is terrible. But the data shows that simply isn’t true. (More on that below.)
It’s also good to keep in mind that this county level data doesn’t show what is happening in specific towns around the county. And it is true that SOME towns are quite a bit slower than they were in previous years. Let’s look at Wake County first.
Metric #1: How Many Listings Are Expiring?
There are three things I want to know when I am analyzing a housing market.
The first one is the expiration ratio. That means I need to know how many homes expired and what percentage those expired listings were of the homes that actually closed. In Wake County, there were 567 homes that expired without selling, and there were 1,556 total homes that sold, which means the expiration ratio was 27%. That’s a pretty good chunk.
Now, before we get too excited about that, we need to look for ghost listings. Ghost listings are new construction listings of homes that don’t exist yet. Builders put these listings up for lots that they own. This allows them to determine how much demand there is for the homes before they actually build them.
In July, 77 of those 567 expired listings were new construction. Now, I don’t think they were all ghost listings. I saw a LOT of townhomes in that list. So there are still a decent number of homes expiring. I do expect to see a higher percentage of ghost listings in outlying counties like Johnston and Harnett.
Metric #2: Are Homes Entering the Market Faster Than They’re Leaving?
The next metric I look at is the new listings-to-pendings ratio. This tells me how many new homes went on the market in a month and how many homes left the market in the same month. In Wake County in July, the listing-to-pending ratio was 67%, so for every 100 homes that enter the market, 67 leave the market. Incidentally, this is the exact same listing-to-pending ratio as last July.
I love this metric because it allows me to disregard stale listings. Stale listings are stale for a reason. Either they are in poor condition, they back up to a main road, or they are in some other undesirable situation. And at times, they stack up. Sellers aren’t super motivated right now, so we’re seeing a lot of stale listings. But we still know that out of every 100 homes entering the market, about 67 are going pending.
Metric #3: How Many Homes Are Still Selling Quickly?
The next metric is my favorite. I want to know how many properties that sold this month sold in less than 10 days. Now, for this one, we want to remove all new construction because new construction always shows 0 days on market, and it skews our data.
In Wake County, 1,191 existing homes sold in July. Of those, 451 sold in less than 10 days. That means 38% of the homes that sold in July did so in less than 10 days.
In the spring, we were seeing 50–60% of homes sell in less than 10 days. So it’s slower than spring. But it’s just about the same as last year, when 39% of homes that sold in July did so in 10 days or less.
The Big Picture
Overall, the Wake County market is performing exactly like it did last year in late summer. However, Wake County is a big place. Some towns really are slower than they were last year. And some are hotter than last year. It just depends on where you live. If you want to discuss the market in your area, click the link below to schedule a call with me.
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Local Happenings
Things to Do
🎸 Blues Traveler, Gin Blossoms & Spin Doctors — Cary
Friday, August 28
If your middle school self had a poster on the bedroom wall, this show is for you. Three of the 90s’ most recognizable rock acts are hitting the same stage at Koka Booth Amphitheatre, and the lineup is almost absurdly good. Tickets start around $66, and yes, you’ll absolutely sing along to every song.
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🎉 Wilson’s Mills Founders Day — Wilson’s Mills
Saturday, August 22, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m.
This little Johnston County gem is marking its 30th year of incorporation, and they’re doing it right. Live local music, food trucks, pie contests, inflatables, health screenings, and founding families sharing actual town history — some of them in period costumes. It’s free, it’s genuinely charming, and it’s exactly the kind of event that reminds you why small towns are worth moving to.
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🎨 50th Annual Lazy Daze Arts & Crafts Festival — Cary
Saturday & Sunday, August 22-23, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
Half a century in, and Lazy Daze is still one of the best free festivals in the state. Over 250 juried artists from across the country take over downtown Cary, with four stages of live music, 25+ food vendors, a beer garden, and a Kid Collectors Market where kids can buy actual art for $5. The 50th anniversary gets some extra sparkle, too — including an interactive dragonfly sculpture that’s part art installation, part photo op.
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🏃 Night Nation Run — Cary
Saturday, August 22, 8 p.m.
This is not your standard 5K. It’s more like someone crossed a fun run with a rave and decided to hold it at Koka Booth Amphitheatre. The course has live DJs, bubble zones, neon lights, and light shows at every turn, and the finish line drops you straight into an after-party with headliner DJs. Whether you’re here to run or here to dance, nobody’s checking your pace. Tickets start around $45.
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🌙 Rhythm & Reels: Ol’ Joey Scrums — Apex
Saturday, August 29, 7 p.m.
Apex’s beloved summer series wraps up its 2026 season with Ol’ Joey Scrums, a honky-tonk and Americana outfit that’s a perfect last-hurrah-of-summer soundtrack. Bring a blanket, pack a picnic, and settle into the Nature Park Amphitheatre for a free night under the stars. It’s the kind of evening that makes you actually sad when September shows up.
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Day Trips
🏄 East Coast Surfing Championships — Virginia Beach, VA
August 23–30, 2026
The world’s longest-running surf competition is back for its 64th year, and you don’t have to surf a day in your life to have a blast. The Virginia Beach Oceanfront transforms into a full-on beach carnival from 1st to 10th Street, with pro and amateur surfers competing for titles, plus BMX demos, beach volleyball, skateboarding, cornhole, live music, and food trucks. It’s free to attend, and if you go on Friday or Saturday, you’ll catch the Aloha Block Party on top of everything else. Drive time from the Triangle is about 3 hours — go for the day or book a weekend.
🍺 High Country Beer Fest — Boone, NC
Saturday, August 29, 2026 | 2–7 p.m.
Fifty-some craft breweries, free fermentation seminars, live music, and mountain air that’s about 15 degrees cooler than whatever you left behind in the Triangle. The High Country Beer Fest is a fundraiser for Appalachian State’s Fermentation Sciences program, which means the education angle is actually legit — and the beer is absolutely worth the drive. It’s a 21+ event, tickets are $50 general admission ($100 VIP), and shuttles run from App State’s Peacock lot. Plan ahead: rides are limited in Boone, so either stay overnight or designate a driver.
⚓ The One That Always Delivers — Beaufort, NC
Best late-summer weekend trip | About 2.5 hours from the Triangle
Beaufort’s downtown is one of those places that earns its “hidden gem” reputation every single time. Front Street runs along Taylor Creek, wild horses roam Shackleford Banks just across the water, and the pace slows down in all the right ways. Late August is ideal — crowds thin a little but the water’s still warm and the ferries are running.
🗺️ While You’re There
- NC Maritime Museum — Just reopened in April 2026 after renovations; come see the Blackbeard collection and the history of the Crystal Coast in a freshly updated space.
- Shackleford Banks Ferry — Hop a ferry across Taylor Creek to watch wild horses roam the barrier island. It’s one of those experiences that feels like it shouldn’t be this easy to access.
🍽️ Eat
- Aqua Restaurant — Tucked down a back alley off Middle Lane, Aqua is the kind of place locals bring out-of-towners for a real wow. Small plates, fresh-caught seafood, and a wine list that means business.
🛏️ Make It a Weekend
- Compass Hotel by Margaritaville — Opened in February 2026 right on Taylor Creek; waterfront views, a pool, and free hot breakfast make it an easy yes.
🌿 A Weekend Above the Heat — Blowing Rock, NC
Best late-summer weekend | About 3.5 hours from the Triangle
When the Triangle is sitting at 95 and you’ve hit your humidity limit, Blowing Rock is your answer. This tiny High Country village sits at 3,500 feet, which means highs in the upper 70s in late August, actual breezes, and none of the sticky misery. The town is walkable, charming, and has enough to keep you busy without feeling like you’re following an itinerary.
🗺️ While You’re There
- Moses H. Cone Memorial Park — Carriage trails through 3,500 acres of Blue Ridge Parkway land; the manor house has a remarkable craft shop run by the Southern Highland Craft Guild.
- The Blowing Rock Attraction — Yes, the one from which the town gets its name. It’s genuinely impressive and the views from the rock face over the Johns River Gorge are worth the stop.
🍽️ Eat
- Dan’l Boone Inn — This is the one. Family-style Southern cooking (fried chicken, green beans, biscuits, the works) in a historic boarding house; cash only and cash worth it.
🛏️ Make It a Weekend
- Chetola Resort — Right on Chetola Lake at the edge of town; low-key mountain lodge energy with the town walkable from your door.
