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Why Everyone You Know Has a Different Opinion About the Housing Market

If you’ve been getting whiplash from housing market takes lately; your neighbor swears her house sold in four days for $20K over asking, while your coworker’s had his on the market since Memorial Day with barely a nibble, I have good news: you’re not losing your mind. They’re just both right.

I pulled the June numbers for SW Wake (Cary, Apex, Fuquay-Varina, Holly Springs) and NE Johnston (Garner, Wendell, Zebulon, Clayton) – I’m particularly curious about these markets since I am personally selling and buying in them right now – and the data explains exactly why the market feels like it’s having an identity crisis.

The Big Picture

On paper, it looks calm. SW Wake sellers averaged 98% of original list price; Johnston sellers averaged 97.6%. Solid, unremarkable, “everything’s fine” numbers. But those averages are quietly hiding two completely different markets living inside the same county.

There’s one number that tells you just how differently these two markets are moving: pending-to-listing ratio, which measures how much of a month’s new inventory goes under contract before the month is even over. In SW Wake, 73% of new listings went pending in June. In Johnston, it was 66%.

Interestingly, of the homes that go under contract, speed doesn’t seem to be the differentiator — 58% of Wake’s closed sales and 57% of Johnston’s happened in under 10 days, nearly identical. So the real gap isn’t in how fast homes move once they’re getting offers; it’s in how much of each county’s fresh inventory is finding a buyer at all. Wake is converting new listings into pending sales at a meaningfully higher rate. Johnston’s homes that do attract a buyer move just as quickly — there are just proportionally fewer of them doing so.

Not All Price Points Are Created Equal

Break it out by price point, and the story splits in two. In SW Wake, homes priced $1.5M and up closed above list price 36.8% of the time in June — practically a bidding war every time one hits the market. Homes in the $300K–$399K range? Only 10.8% closed above asking. Johnston shows the same split: its $750K–$999K bracket (this is the luxury price point in Johnston) saw 40% close above list, while its $200K–$299K homes came in around 16.6%.

So… your neighbor with the four-day sale? Probably wasn’t in the $350K range. And your coworker whose listing is gathering dust? He’s likely sitting in that exact middle bracket where the “hot market” everyone keeps talking about just… isn’t really showing up.

The Unsold Listings Tell an Even Bigger Story

Then there’s the unsold listings, which might be the most honest number in the whole dataset. Johnston’s expired and withdrawn listings clustered hardest in the $300K–$399K bracket (40% were in this range) — and that band also happens to be one of the coldest in Johnston, with only 15.7% of homes closing above list. That part makes sense: fewer buyers competing, more listings stall out.

SW Wake tells a stranger story. Its unsold listings piled up in the $400K–$499K (40 listings) and $600K–$749K (30 listings) ranges — bands that aren’t cold at all. Those same price points saw 19.7% and 23% of homes close above list price, respectively — solidly competitive, not far off the pace of the pricier brackets.

So how does a price band see real buyer competition and rack up a stack of expired listings at the same time? Stick with me — the answer isn’t about price at all, and it’s the most useful thing in this whole newsletter if you’re getting ready to sell.

A Hot Market Doesn’t Guarantee a Sale

Meanwhile, the luxury end is basically throwing its own party. Multiple offers, over-asking closes, the whole nine yards.

What I find fascinating is that even in the most competitive price bands — the ones where 30%+ of properties are getting multiple offers — there were still homes that expired unsold.

Being in a hot price point doesn’t exempt you from doing the work. CLEARLY, buyers are very eager to buy, but they are also very picky. They will not buy your home if it isn’t market ready, clean, maintained, and in some cases, updated to modern standards. If your home IS well cared for and has the features that are important to buyers, there is a competitive market of buyers ready to fight for your home.

So What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re selling: Don’t assume “hot market” energy — or even being in a “hot” price bracket — will do the heavy lifting for you. That $750K–$999K range proves it: buyers there are clearly willing to compete, but plenty of listings in that same band still expired unsold. The difference wasn’t the price point, it was the house. Buyers today have options, and they’re using them to be picky — they want move-in ready, well-maintained, updated. A strong pre-listing prep plan isn’t optional anymore, no matter what bracket you’re in; it’s the thing separating the four-day sale from the four-month sit.

If you’re buying: This cuts both ways for you. In the broad middle of the market ($300K–$500K), the stall itself is your leverage — you likely have room to negotiate or take your time. But don’t assume the higher brackets are all-out bidding wars, either. Plenty of $750K+ listings are sitting unsold because they haven’t been prepped or updated — those are the ones where you may still have negotiating room, even in a “competitive” price band. The lesson either way: look at the actual house, not just the price tag headlines, before you decide how much leverage you have.

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Local Happenings

🎬 Movie Night: Finding Nemo

📅 July 17, 8:30–10:10 pm | 📍 DCP Great Lawn Pavilion, Downtown Cary Park

Pack a blanket, grab the lawn chairs, and let the kids (or you, no judgment) sing along as Marlin searches for his son. Free, first-come seating, and food trucks will be on-site so dinner’s covered too. Learn More

🛍️ Maker’s Market at Fenton

📅 July 18, 11 am–4 pm | 📍 Fenton, Cary

Local artists, handmade goods, and live music take over Fenton Square for the day — basically a mall, but make it Etsy. Perfect for a Saturday where you want to feel productive without actually doing anything productive. Learn More

👾 GalaxyCon Raleigh

📅 July 23–26 | 📍 Raleigh Convention Center

Celebrity guests, cosplay, comics, gaming, and wrestling take over downtown Raleigh for one of the Southeast’s biggest pop culture cons. You don’t have to know a single thing about anime to enjoy people-watching here — it’s basically a costume party with a schedule. Learn More

🍔 Bikes, Burgers & Brews

📅 July 25, 12–2 pm | 📍 Tobacco Road Harley-Davidson, Raleigh

A yard full of chrome, burgers, cold beer, and music — worth the swing-by even if you’ve never thrown a leg over a bike. Learn More

🥃 Beer, Bourbon & BBQ Festival

📅 July 31 (6–10 pm) – August 1 | 📍 Koka Booth Amphitheatre, Cary

The heavyweight foodie event of the bunch — 40+ bourbons, 60+ craft beers, pulled pork and brisket galore, plus live rock, blues, and bluegrass on the main stage. Bring stretchy pants. Learn More

🫧 Bubble Fest at Moore Square

📅 July 26, 11 am–4 pm | 📍 Moore Square, Raleigh

Thousands of bubbles, interactive bubble shows, face painting, live music, and food trucks — a genuinely magical (and grandkid-approved) way to spend a Sunday. Free to attend, with a paid premium bubble experience for the truly committed. Learn More

Day Trips

🫐 11th Annual Blueberry Fest

📅 July 18, 10 am–4 pm | 📍 Botanist & Barrel, Cedar Grove (~45 min from Raleigh)

U-pick blueberries (unlimited with admission — new this year), live Bluegrass Jazz Fusion from The Wilted Plums, a pig pick’n, wine and cider flights, and blueberry donuts. Only $5 a car. Basically a whole Southern summer afternoon distilled into one farm. Learn More

🎭 International Black Theatre Festival

📅 July 27 – August 1 | 📍 Winston-Salem (~1.5–2 hrs from Raleigh)

This one’s a bucket-list trip, not just a day trip — 120+ performances across 20+ venues, celebrity guests, a Midnight Poetry Jam, and an International Vendors Market, all founded with support from Maya Angelou back in 1989. Book a night downtown if you can; there’s no way to see it all in an afternoon. Learn More

🇵🇪 Charlotte Peruvian Festival

📅 July 25, 12–8 pm | 📍 Victoria Yards, Charlotte (~2.5 hrs from Raleigh)

Live Peruvian bands, traditional folk dances, and food that’ll make you forget you’re still in North Carolina. A genuinely joyful way to spend a summer Saturday if you’re up for the drive. Learn More

🍉 North Carolina Watermelon Festival

📅 July 29 – August 1 | 📍 Historic Downtown Murfreesboro (~2.5–3 hrs from Raleigh)

This one’s been going strong since 1957 — four days of carnival rides, a parade, live music, crafts, and the crowd-favorite watermelon seed-spitting and eating contests, all under the iconic Watermelon Arch. Free watermelon slices for everyone. A proper small-town summer road trip. Learn More

🎨 Art in the Park

📅 July 25, 10 am–4 pm | 📍 Blowing Rock (~3 hrs from Raleigh)

A cooler-weather escape to the mountains — this juried art and handcraft show has been running since 1962 and draws artisans from across the Southeast selling pottery, jewelry, woodwork, and more along Park Avenue. Free shuttle parking, and if you make a weekend of it, there’s a free outdoor concert the following Sunday. Learn More